The video and accompanying presentation gather much of the current thinking around building startups from scratch to scale.
This was my annual contribution to Seedcamp, in the form of a new Prezi and accompanying commentary on Startup Lifecycle, which I presented at Seedcamp Ljubljana.
An awesome editing job was done by Lecture Hub using flowplayer and you can now enjoy the synchronized presentation and slides on their site.
And since I'm still having a bit of trouble typing, I borrowed the blog post of a super Seedcamp startup (that I voted for hard but you cannot win them all) called Blossom.io to give you a sense of what's covered. I trust Thomas won't send me a cease and desist. If you are looking for Lean Project Management, check them out.
I look forward to any comments -- ping me over mail, this blog will migrate soon and not sure I can (be bothered to) migrate the comments over with me.
Start
Pick the right co-founder
Do reverse vesting — It’s founder friendly
Borrow & steal — minimize cost, more time for product/market fit
Finally made it to #Techcocktail / Startup Mixology conference in Chicago
First guy I see is Travis Kalanick (@KonaTBone), a co-founder of Scour and later RedSwoosh (acquired by Akamai). He’s full of fun factoid (such as influencing Parker in “getting” Zuck and fb, says he’s been replaced by an Asian woman in the movie, or getting sued for $250bn). He’s a mix of arrogant and brilliant, pitches himself as a “startup curator”. JamPad is his gig, “startup jamming” is the high concept. He can be “The Wolf in Pulp Fiction, your Funding Shepherd, Your Interim CXO, and Curator of Entrepreneurs, your Eminence Grise”. Ultimately though the guy has got plenty of substance once he gets going; I would want him on my side if I was a founder.
A few points from him I wanted to share:
Preemption is bad; don’t trust VC’s who pitch pre-emptive deals, you usually get a raw deal. I am sure there are a ton of counter examples, but he’s basically saying “don’t fall for VC marketing, raise money on your own terms”. Can’t disagree, will still try to pre-empt… Would you not think less of me if I didn’t ?
VCs want to kill founders, even those who perform well. I have a lot of sympathy with this point. I have seen this tendency at work of replacing founders, which usually means losing part of the soul of the company. Pattern recognition iswhat drives this, in the sense that many companies fail because founders don’t "scale" (fact). But it’s become a disease in the industry to seek “professional CEOs'” too early or when it's not warranted. Often the supposedly rational choice is not the RIGHT choice. In a way this is where art and intuition trump method and experience, the ability to recognize when to take a real risk on an unproven but talented entrepreneur so as not to kill the spirit of the business. Hired guns don't do miracles, but founders often do.
“Fear is the disease; hustle is the antidote”
“Fake it till you make it” is bullshit; don’t live a lie, this is not a sustainable but an insecure strategy driven by fear. His message: don’t fake it, you won't make it.
Funding does not solve all problems. Absolutely. Funding does not solve product/market fit and can make the pressure worse. Sales and hustle solves problems. No point raising too much too fast when you won’t use that money because you haven’t figured out p/m fit yet.
CEOs that survive are CEOs. If you are not tough enough to survive the pressures, you won’t make it. Magic is not enough to take you through, you need the grit and toughness to make it through, and you need to be self-aware enough to recognise when you don’t have the toughness in you.
Many, many entrepreneurs have had bad / disappointing advisor relationships. Part of the problem is that entrepreneurs try to squeeze too much out of advisors. Think about full time value (cash and equity) if they come on board, and pro-rate to how much you would give them for the time they actually commit. It’s probably going to be more than you would normally give them, but now expectations are set and you are likely to get real value. I agree wholeheartedly, there is an art to being a good mentor and advisor that few people master, and there is an art and a method to getting real value out of advisors, that few founders master. Much work to do here and a necessity to reference and create feedback loops.
It's a beautiful summer Thursday in the English countryside. I am at Founders Forum, surrounded by iPads and beautifully tanned entrepreneurs. The Founders have spent the last two days working together on big themes and issues facing the entrepreneurial community, from major trends to where Google is going, to taxation and labour policy issues. On the Thursday some VC's get invited, including yours truly. Quite a change from my exhilarating evening at low-key co-working commune at BetaHaus Berlin the day before: this is entrepreneurship with a Tesla thrown in.
Never mind the Four Seasons environment, these is some serious brainpower, money, success and intent in this room. Founders Forum is awesome because of the quality of people that it brings together. From Peter Gabriel to Danny Rimer to Kevin Ryan, an all around great crowd (with some exceptions, self-evidently :-)). The brainchild of Jonnie Goodwin at Jefferies, Brent Hoberman (ProFounders) and Marc Samwer, it's now firmly established as a prime occasion for top entrepreneurs, well beyond the UK and Europe. As David Rowan at Wired puts, it feels like Europe is really coming into its own. Thankfully, there's also some relaxed geezers around like Mike B, Sara M and Dave McC.
Let's shift gear and look at some of the content. First we go for a few high-level insights from some of the founders on the themes they discussed and then a look at the "rising stars" of this year. Note these are not my opinions.
e-commerce insights
E-commerce penetration is currently around 5%, expected to get to north 15% - 30 to 40% for the most bullish of the group. Serious concerns arise related to the over-reliance on amazon, apple, ebay. Google felt to potentially be the big loser here -- high proportion of revenues from shopping search are likely to go away. Google do not capture shopping data on apps, private sales, apple network. The Plink / Google team (who showcased their amazing visual recognition tech) may disagree.
Monetisation of content
First one has to focus on the value as a content provider: is it in packaging, organisation, convenience, accessibility, timeliness, uniqueness, insights etc. Free / ad supported is only at best a way to grow audience as colossal scale is required for free and that is clearly not sustainable for most media brands. We need to find smart ways to protect "paid": smart use of rights protection whereby content owners do not replicate what music owners so disastrously did, combined with the advent of policing. Bundling is promising (although I find this back-to-the-future thinking odd as one would argue the web is actually all about the unbundling of media, starting with classifieds). Further, when monetization models shift, the entire sourcing / production / delivery model needs to change and focusing on the monetisation side only is clearly wrong. So the key question is reframed: "how do you rethink the collection, aggregation and distribution of content so that the content monetisation of today become viable and sustainable ?"
Privacy: google, fb and apple are all gathering most personal information with fb gathering graph info; most people do not care but vocal fringe and politicians should create a concern for everyone. Conclusion: the industry "needs better education / self regulation to help avoid defensive action"
Rising stars 2009 : update
Shazam (andrew) announced 75M users up from 35m last year, touted shazam red as the first giving app on the apple store, as well as the first interactive tv app with us broadcast networks ("tag tv on the fly, make tv interactive"). Tweetdeck's metrics wowed too, Ian is on to something. jollycloud (tariq) talked about the imminent launch of its new os (yes, using html5 etc.) for netbooks and tablets, completely open to break the vertical integration paradigm. kenshoo said it was growing fast and profitably, nice ! poken (stefan) raised a new round of $2M from swisscom venture; cybersports hit 2M visits and raised £4M. playfish (kristian) was again the most fun and for my money the most impressive: the 25M monthly actives have now become 60M monthly actives, 200 employees, the reverse takeover of EA is well under way :-) Finally wolfram alpha (stephen) was celebrating one year since launch, talked multi-platform and pushing its computational platform to a number of corporates and governments.
Rising stars 2010
secondmarket: wall street 3.0, liquidity in private assets (US)
70% of trading is done by high frequency traders, the four top bulge brackets banks made money every trading day in Q1. Wow. Now we need liquidity in private assets, which is why secondmarket has developed private markets in 7 asset classes, running over $3bn in transactions, including private company stock, LP interests, bankrupt assets. The key here is to craft the market around the company / client and not the other way around -- allowing participatns to define their own market rules. Companies traded include fb, eHarmony, linkedin, tesla, secondlife, zynga or twitter.
Believe from a guy who lives and breathes this market: "Don't believe the hype: adoption of new mobile apps is overhyped -- change of behaviour has to be driven by real needs or analog experience has to be really painful". His case study: mobile ticketing, with a simple promise: "never queue again". "Hitting the user right at the paint point and servicing them in the simplest way is the only way to get serious adoption". No requirement for user names, registration etc. but just a simple transaction and consumer promise: "buy a ticket with your credit card on your mobile".
fwix: organise the information by what is happening nearby (darian shirazi) (SFO)
Their mission: "to cure, filter and index information by location", in the process building the largest local content index in the world. Indexing news, status updates, reviews, local content types ... moving well-beyond news. The promise: embeddable local content. The widget network is off to a great start, Darian shared impressive numbers with us. Also signed a deal with the NY Times. Monetization through local search, relevancy means 10% CTR's.
oblong (LA)
This was definitely technogeek heaven: presenting the "g-speak spatial operating environment"- effectively the tech used in Minority Report. Now expanding on this with, on top of the 3d gen natural user interface (MR): real-world pixels + recombinant networking (huh, a "lego-like data architecture"). In practical terms you use gloves to do gesture commands and navigate and organise data on the fly. They also developped wands because "generals don't wear gloves". Applications are primarily in the military and oil and gas sectors.
We all know and love boxee ("free software that helps users watch and discover stuff on their tv") and Avner rocked. Lots of users, lots of money raised (from USV, spark, GC). 30 employees, 3 years old. launching boxee box by d-link in november, $200 with HDMI and wifi. His focus on early monetization, the box and the European launch. "We have been doing zero revenues for the last three quarters, meeting budget consistently" jokes Avner.
Simply awesome visual search engine company, acquired by google in april. Can recognise just about any pattern or physical objects. Launched on art vertical on android. "Image recognition is ready for prime time" we're told. Ah, the lure of the mighty G...
this comoany was founded in 2004 and is focused on holographic laser projection, having now raised $30M in VC funding, The "first" product turns any flat surface into a touch screen. A ton of applications are touted, including car controls, projecting restaurant menus onto tables, enhancing a shopper's experience. The ipad without the screen, basically. I hope they can break into the car vertical, but I am a bit of a skeptic on that one, I must admit.
Simple promise: "the internet in nine seconds. This company has brought us a browser operating system meant to power a new class of consumer electronic devices, "couch friendly, affordable web devices". Motto: "The internet is the application". Now shipping 12inch devices that boots in 9 seconds. Merge app store goodness with the openness of the web. Multi-touch, multi-task, high res, flash support :-) , full html5 compliant, $399. Oh, and a 3g version coming soon. Whilst some thought this was mission impossible, all agreed that getting this out there in 2 years with 14 employees was simply amazing.
Marcel Gashi
He was clearly busy doing some real business, as Marcel Gashi, the 18 year old repeat entrepreneneur who raised £7M for timmp, was MIA. Shame, he sounds like a juggernaut and I would have liked to see him.
And now for something completely different...
Human robotics by Professor Hiroshi Ishiguro, Osaka Uiversity
Premise : think of Androids and geminoids as new information media. "We are looking at a robotics enhanced society soon". Pr Ishiguro is working on the development of interactive robots enabled by sensor networks, remote control and autonomous intelligence. Specifically, working on "human like robots" with complex facial expressions. Next steps: the Geminoid = a tele-operated android of an existing person. "I don't need to go to Kyoto anymore, my robot is there for me". It was interesting to think of human likeness which turns many people off: "Human likeness serves a clear purpose: the human brain is extremely tuned to process and understand human expressions". Practical application: use robots to provide companionship to elderly people or long-time hospital patients. A weird release came next: the mobile phone as a tiny human robot.
Last Friday the Seedcamp train was making its scheduled stop through Paris.
Thanks to the good work of folks like Gilles B, Codor, Leafar, Jacques etc there was a good crop of startups that have been covered in detail by Mike B at TC.
SC continues to excel with the quality of its mentors; many startups were amazed to be able to interact with folks like Remy Amouroux.
For my part I had great fun moderating a panel with Dom Vidal (Index, Yahoo, Kelkoo), Gilles Babinet (Musiwave, Eyeka et. al.), Jerome Touze (WAYN), Jean Schmitt (Sofinnova) and Dider Kuhn (Screentonic). I won't bore you with pearls of semi-wisdom but having folks that have built, financed and exit businesses around the table was great. As is the style for Seedcamp, we tried to keep the discussion deeply pragmatic and practical.
FOWA: in the early afternoon, an inside look at Google API's was provided by a senior product manager who ran through some of the best API usage examples currently out there, including NASA weather mapping, 3D rendering of UK landmark buildings such as the Globe Theater, live fight plan GoogleEarth integration. At code.google.com all the API's are available for the technically minded amongst you. I never got Sphere to work but had no trouble creating personalised search for my blog, so they must be doing something right if non tech users manage to use their APIs too.
An iteresting piece of insight was provided by the fact that the guys at housingmaps.com did the first google mashup by hacking maps and pushed Google to release the API's to the community as fast as they possibly could.
He was followed by Werner Vogels, CTO at Amazon, to talk about S3 and EC2 and other Amazon services. Rather than talk tech, Werner focused on competing on ideas. The concept is of course that Amazon takes the complexity away from you to allow the entrepreneur to focus on their business idea and not the backend. His posterchild is Doug Kaye of the Gigavox podcast application: just drop in your MP3 and publish the podcast with appropriate encoding and ad insertion.
The key message is that Gigavox built very little itself but rather use the EC2 computing cloud, the Queue service and S3 storage. Pay for what you need. So focus on the business idea, build it cheap, grow easily.
The key argument is around business continuity and focus: how can you, as a startup, scale 100x, provide 4 nines uptime, survive a complete datacenter failure etc. Hard disks crash by 6-8% every year. The argument is this is making life too hard for business that need to iterate constantly. Vendor lock-in however was not addressed in the talk, which I certainly feel is a major issue.
Examples put forward include:
Smugmug (125K users, 120M photos). Saved $470K in first 7 monyhs of operation, expecting to save around $2M this year
SecondLife, using S3 as a CDN (streaming 70GB a day) to achieve offload
Enrackados.com (a JS OS operating inside the browser) that uses S3 as the backend and takes an environment snapshot when leaving the session, saved on S3 and restored on the next login
The second service is EC2 i.e. the elastic compute cloud used for load-testing, time of traffic-based scaling, simulation and analysis, rendering, SaaS platform. People run traditional grid based apps on this (see RenderRocket) or archiving services (Hanzo:web).
Another example was natural-language search company PowerSet (described as the most hyped company on the planet). Ratrher than build a massive webcrawl engine they use EC2.
The full array of services include queue services, storage (S3), compute cloud (EC2), search (Alexa), commerce and Mechanical Turk (where humans come back into the picture).
The same concept was promoted by the excellent Simon Warldey who is building a similar service inside Canon / Fotango called Zimki.
Live at the Future of Web Apps: Ben Holmes stands in for Danny Rimer and starts by telling the audience about how great technical founders is really what the VCs are after.
I am sure the FOWA audience with its techy slant appreciated the the compliment, but I think that ain't strictly speaking true in the European environment. The best find is the entrepreneur who can take it all the way, and that usually means a strong businessman at the helm who doubles up as a great product guy. If you look at European startups that made it big, most of them are still run by the original founder (think Business Objects or Skype). Of course these animals are few and far between, and certainly having true product innovators is a decent proxy.
The beggining of the presentation goes through the basics of how VC work, the fact that we VCs have empathy with the entrepreneur money raising process, as we too have to go out and raise some cash every three years. Ben then takes the audience through stages of invesment and others 101 aspects.
VC Value add is presented as follows:
Advice and strategy
Hiring
partnerships
Profile and PR
Internationalisation
Trsuted service provider relationships (hiring, PR)
Exit optimisation
Ben repeats the mantra that Index looks for really great product developers and does not want to get in the way in terms of strategy, pointing out that many Entrepreneur-VC relationships get disruptive when VC's get too prescriptive on strategy. I subscribe to that.
As a case study Ben runs through the Stardoll story, where Index acted as interim management, hired the CEO (Mattias Mikschke), relocated to Stockholm, hired Fred Davis to the Board (a celebrity lawyer), added Sequoia as new VC ("at a good valuation") and so on. Apparently snatched the deal away from Viacom who was looking at buying the business for a couple of million. Stardoll is now in the Alexa 500.
His second case study runs through Skype (who ?), talking about the hiring of Saul Klein, of Mike Volpi as Chairman and about Index's role in navigating the exit strategy.
After this good pitch, Ben moves on to talk about the "founder shock" of receiving a venture capital term-sheet. Here are the highlights of provisions he runs through:
Target 20-35% ownership
Board representation
Liquidation Preferences, Participation Rights, Reverse Vesting, Control and Veto Rights, Option Pool, Exclusivity Period
I liked the way he addressed the hard terms head on and with honesty, in particular the issues of liquidation preference and reverse vesting.
Usefully Ben runs thorugh reasons NOT to raise VC money:
Application is a feature and not a product (MyBLogLog)
Market size is too small
Motivation is not financial
Theere a clearly real dangers in raising VC money. We will push to industrialise and grow what could have been a fantastic medium exit or lifestyle business. It's not for everyone.
Top tips:
Have a great product
Focus predominantly on the business and not the fundraising
Evidence of execution ability is more exciting than a long business plan
A slight twist on his comments would be that early evidence of customer take-up matters probably more than a great product. There is no time that is too early to start testing a concept and a product with customers, you should really do it from conception stage.
Ben moves on to the difficult question of how to choose a VC. I really feel for entrepreneurs given how little visibility there is in the market and the fact that all VCs essentially tell the same story. Having actual funds to invest, quality of relationship, relevance of portfolio are key choice drivers. He urges founders to take references and make sure they like the community they are getting into.
The future Of Web Apps started with a session from TechCrunch's Mike Arrington. I have heard him speak before and he moderated a panel I was on. I am glad to say he kept his content pretty fresh and interesting.
Mike (RSS feed up to 260,000 now :-)) starts with apologising to the crowd for closing TechCrunchUK and not covering the market properly. Remember the vaudeville ?
His talk is entitled "The Magic Formula" i.e. what's the right formula for creating a great startup ... noting immediately and rightly that most great entrepreneurs ignore these rules, alluding to Kevin Rose who seems to be sleeping late. This feeds nicely into the recent post by Saul Klein, his "statement of intent" as it were upon joining Index (more on this later).
Mike starts with a discussion of the Bubble2.0 ($600M invested by VC in Web2) but immediately counteracting with the $1.65bn paid for YouTube (3x the overall money) and the $1bn+ reported bid on Facebook. Bradley Horowitz, who is in the room, "can neither confirm nor deny". I think comparing numbers is missing the point: there aren't enough exits.
He moves on to make the point I most agree with: the endgame is really not del.icio.us or flickr, the best is yet to come and is starting to emerge.
For entrepreneurs, the focus for him should be on:
invent a market / destroy a market / remove friction
have a business plan (he put that in to place Carson but thinks ... really not)
have a revenue model
build it cheap, test the waters (it's really ok if it does not scale in the early days)
avoid a high burn rate (stay hungry, pretend you don't have any money)
However... YouTube
threw away their original business plan
lost a founder
flounted copyright law
had no obvious revenue model
It worked because (a) the removed friction by providing a much needed service - IPTV (and not user generated videos) (b) first to market (c) so much growth that everything esle became irrelevant and money poured in to cover the burn rate.
Some great case studies:
MyBlogLog: launched October 06, acquired Jan 07, never raised a venture round, grew purely virally
AmieStreet: could this be the Digg of Music ? Launched mid 2006. Artists upload, users download, creating demand. The price per download increase based on how many times they get downloaded, up to $0.99. Here is a free market based pricing system for new music. Fantastic.
1800-Free-411: Free business information, place an ad before you get the phone number (highly relevant of course). Has taken over 3% of the US market.
Moves on to shared attributes of winners. I'll pass on these. But shared attributes of losers:
poor founder / team choices (the early C player)
lifestyle / ego entrepreneurs
raising or spending too much money
over-business-plannning
forgot to scale (don't be a friendster)
Opportunities identified by Mike:
Online / Offline
Adobe Appollo (run apps offline and online seamlessly) opens so many opportunities ... incredibly easy to develop (you can now do Flickr and Picasa with the same app)
Firefox 3.0 is working on this
File system + html / flash / ajax
DRM and Music/Movies/TV
Data and service portability (teqlo, nings, pipes) ... very important for freeing user's data, even tough no one has found a way to make money off this yet
Mobile (yawn) preferably#@ going around the carriers
Some new ideas for me, some oversimplifications (raising too much money is a primary reason why people fail -- I will argue that one in a separate post), overall a great session. The guy deserves everything that is happening to him.
I was a LIFT these past few days even though a bad flu meant a lot of time in my hotel room (thankfully a nice room at Les Armures). For great coverage check out Bruno Giussani. Of what I did see, I was fascinated by the extraordinary educational experiments of Prof. Sugata Mitra of HIWEL.
Dr. Sugata Mitra, Chief Scientist at NIIT, is credited with the
discovery of Hole-in-the-Wall. As early as 1982, he had been toying
with the idea of unsupervised learning and computers. Finally, in 1999,
he decided to test his ideas in the field. On 26th January, Dr. Mitra's
team carved a "hole in the wall" that separated the NIIT premises from
the adjoining slum in Kalkaji, New Delhi. Through this hole, a freely
accessible computer was put up for use. This computer proved to be an
instant hit among the slum dwellers, especially the children. With no
prior experience, the children learnt to use the computer on their own.
The original "hole in the wall" being installed
In a nutshell, this is what happens:
a hole in the walll computer is installed in a village or slum
within 10 minutes, some entrepreprising child has taught himself to surf
within hours, a collaborative surfing experience is under way
in months, children teach themselves IM, email, gaming, online music and video, general surfing, English
like any good grassroots network, this is one is self-organisational and so efficient because it does not impose a way of functioning on its members
Children teach themselves collaboratively with minimum outside intervention, hence the term minimally invasive education. Skills picked up include problem solving, collaboration, sharing. In remote areas where no English was spoken, children would teach themselves basic English (badly pronounced but correctly conceptualised) from using the computer.
It also seems that as a complement to traditional educaction, the programme has a real impact on a child's academic results, as you can see in detail here.
It's really fascinating stuff. The interaction between the children is best appreciated by watching the HIWEL videos, but unfortunately I could not locate any on the web. Some of the great moments include the boy who learns to surf in a few minutes, the little girl who teaches the older boy (she has knowledge that he cannot "take" from her, so collaboration is the only way for him to progress) and the formation of "circles of knowledge" (3 kids operating the PC, another circle of 8 kids providing expert comments, another circle 16 kids providing completely useless comments, all learning from each other).
Chanchal (Girl, 12): "I
love solving Maths problems. I find that very interesting. I have
learnt it from my sister Raj. I have taught my friend Shilpa."
This week at Tony Perkin's AlwaysOn Media conference (which Atlas Venture was sponsoring)
it was my pleasure to moderate an entertaining panel on Mashups.
We started out by defining mashups for the audience, linking both content mashups (chicagocrime.org being the example I used, mixing maps and crime stats) and application mashups (the creation of composite applications through the use of web services). For info on mashups best to look at ProgrammableWeb.
After a presentation of the participants we ran through a good number of questions from the audience.
Itzik Cohen of ClipSync talked through the unique value presented by his technology innovation, turning the web into a real "venue" where an audience could interact in real time around content. The guy used to play for Maccabi Tel Aviv; I am not worthy. Clipsync: "Watch it together" -- Imagine watching Borat with your friends and not alone with your PC. Danny Kolke from Etelos presented his evolutive vision from the programmable web, but the old days of exposing legacy apps as webservices to today's broadening API platforms and a world where, effectively, "everything is content" (from his blog). "Uninsurable" Seth Sternberg from Meebo said he did not know he was a mashup at all when he started the company. I joked that with 1.6M logins a day (if I remember correctly) the absence of buzzwords should not be a problem for the company. And Rex Wong of Dave Networks talked us through his use of mashup concepts to create the media enabler of the future.
Some of the thoughts that came out of the panel:
Innovation still required: Most content mashups are little more than fun apps put together by coders after hours. Take ononemap for an elegant example. But those that can add real value and stand on their own two feet as technology innovations can hope to accrete sustainable value.
Mashup = reuse = efficiency: Mashups provide the ultimate time-to-market and capital efficiency tool. Why reinvent the wheel when you can piggyback the expertise of other programmers and product designers and assemble a best of breed application ?
Confusion of roles: In the Open API word who knows whether you are an enabler, a destination site, a content ingestion site etc? You can be all of the above. Meebo is a multi IM tool but can also be found in the gadgets on Live.com. DailyMotion is a video hub and who knows whether it's a destination site, an enabler for private channels, a hoster for blogs.
On-the-fly intermediation: The internet has seen wave after wave of intermediation. Meta-intermediaries are easiliy enabled by mashups. The ability to provide unique value but leverage the data and communities built by others give mashups unique leverage.
Mashups as disruptors: consider this: if you can leverage thousands of programmers, audited open platforms, millions of content providers, mashups could be much more than "features as companies" or distant derivatives that deliver no value. They could well prove to be a disruptive force in the software industry.
I am happy to report that at least one person liked the session :-) Allen Stern also posted a fairly detailed review of the session on his blog.
You have heard this story a 1,000 times, but going to basics on headline numbers is always sobering (courtesy of Mr Deninger, Jefferies). Facts, not opininons (i hope I got his numbers right).
1996: $4bn deployed, 110-ish "quality exits" (meaning 100+ in value)
2006: $11bn deployed, 67 quality exits
In digital media alone: $6bn put to work and over 1,000 companies funded (according to Kara Nortman, a VP M&A with IAC).
That's insane. We will probably not get a market correction that is
anywhere close to the last one, but the venture industry is undoubtedly
recreating problems for itself here.
But not us. We are not lemmings. Proof: my partner Ahmet Ozalp, when
asked where he plans to invest our money, points out that telecom
infastructure (amongst other themes he mentions) is due a comeback.
Mark Stevens (a partner from Fenwick & West) almost falls off his
chair and says "You heard it here first, folks, telco is back !".
Another issue raised by Bruce:
The problem is compounded by 6 years of decline in the number of quoted companies. This means fewer buyers, a depleted acquiror pool and increased negotiation leverage for the buyers.
Bruce's advice: bring more of your companies public... We'll work on that !
There is a nice podcast from Sam where he talks through the incident, through GizBUZZ. It was a good occasion to line up some final thoughts about this story and draw some conclusions:
Real time is fine, but when (driven by exhaustion) France's number one blogger insults you openly on your site, it may be time to call a time out and engage in dialog. Blogs are supposed to be about conversations, this time it was more about asynchronous slander. My judgement is that Sam should have taken a breather and talked this one over with both Mike and Loic. Offline is sometimes better.
Having said that, I would side with Sam were I forced to take sides. Here is a guy who reacted in the way a real time blogger who is a full partner of TCUK would be expected to.
On reflection, the defense of Mike (they were not a sponsor because no money changed hands) is slightly Clintonesque: factually true but not right either. To blog prosecutor: "I did engage in barter advertising but did not actually cash out". I still respect Mike's decision as the senior partner in TCUK.
Finally, I don't see how TCUK recovers from this. Who will step in the shoes of the murdered man ? They should just close it down for 6 months.
Also some final words on lewebtrois by a much better blogger than I.
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